2022 Housing Market 12 months In Evaluate

17 housing developments that outlined the yr, together with document residence costs and sky-high mortgage charges

The 2022 housing market was nothing wanting outstanding. The pandemic and ensuing distant work continued to outline how, when, and the place individuals purchased houses. The median U.S. residence worth hit a document excessive earlier than falling barely. Rising rents stretched renters’ budgets. Excessive inflation put elevated stress on virtually everybody. For the primary time in historical past, mortgage charges doubled within the span of only one yr. The listing goes on

Basically, 2022 was a response to the dramatic actual property growth in 2021. The yr began with a surge in costs and progress throughout the board earlier than falling alongside document inflation within the fall. November and December noticed a a lot slower and seasonally-expected housing market, with year-over-year modifications in lease costs, home costs, and rates of interest both falling or slowing down. 

Beneath is a non-exhaustive listing of knowledge factors and visuals that outlined the 2022 housing market. 

1. House costs rose to an all-time excessive

In Could, the everyday residence bought for $430,365, a document excessive since information started in 1963, shattering 2021’s excessive of $386,000. In March, the median sale worth rose 16.8% yr over yr, the biggest proportion enhance during the last 5 years. Following the pandemic, demand skyrocketed whereas provide remained traditionally low, inflicting a extreme housing scarcity and worth growth that continued all through 2021 and peaked halfway by way of 2022. In April and Could, mortgage charges rose to fight rising inflation, which started reversing housing developments from earlier within the yr. 

Regardless of a shortly cooling housing market, costs are nonetheless greater at the moment than any earlier yr on document. 

2. San Francisco was the most costly metro space for homebuyers in 2022 

The median sale worth of a house in San Francisco was $1,505,000 in 2022, up 0.3% yr over yr. For one week in April, the median worth reached a excessive of $1,700,000, just under 2021’s all-time excessive of $1,728,000. Because the yr went on, costs dropped nearer to pre-pandemic ranges, which can probably proceed till mortgage charges fall additional.  

• Six of the highest ten costliest metros have been in California.
• Many Florida metros skilled the biggest year-over-year worth progress, together with Tampa (18%), Orlando (14.9%), Jacksonville (14.7%), and Miami (14.2%).
• Tampa had the biggest year-over-year worth progress of all giant metros within the nation. 

The highest ten costliest cities to purchase a house in 2022

Knowledge consists of the yearly aggregated median sale costs out of all houses bought in every of the 50 largest metropolitan areas. Knowledge doesn’t have in mind native median incomes and residential affordability.

3. Detroit was the least costly metro space for homebuyers in 2022

The median sale worth for a house in Detroit was $165,000 in 2022, up 3.3% yr over yr. House costs in Detroit hit $213,000 for every week in June, making it the most costly month of the yr however nonetheless almost 50% decrease than the nationwide median. Basically, year-over-year worth will increase in 2022 have been smaller throughout most main metros than in 2021, and progress dipped additional heading into the primary week of December. 

• The highest ten least costly metros have been all positioned within the Rust Belt, a geographic area close to the Nice Lakes.
• Philadelphia was the one giant metro that skilled a worth lower in 2022.
• Kansas Metropolis, MO was the eleventh least costly metro, and the primary non-Rust-Belt metro on the listing.

The highest ten least costly cities to purchase a house in 2022

Knowledge consists of the yearly aggregated median sale costs out of all houses bought in every of the 50 largest metropolitan areas. Knowledge doesn’t have in mind native median incomes and residential affordability. 

4. Lease costs rose dramatically as provide struggled to maintain up with demand

Lease costs in 2022 have been 12.8% greater than they have been in 2021. Nationwide, the median lease worth rose to $2,053 in August earlier than dipping barely, the very best on document and a 12.3% enhance year-over-year. Following the pandemic, lease costs skyrocketed largely due to a lack of supply and a boom in demand, each of that are simply now balancing out.

• Median lease costs in New York rose to over $4,000, retaining its dominance as the most costly metro for renters within the nation.
• Lots of the least costly metros skilled the very best year-over-year lease will increase, together with Oklahoma Metropolis (23.3%), Cincinnati (17.6%), and Pittsburgh (14.8%).
• Oklahoma Metropolis skilled the very best year-over-year lease will increase within the nation.  
• Lease progress has constantly outpaced wages for many years, however the most recent data states {that a} staggering 40% of renters spent greater than 30% of their earnings on lease from 2017-2021.

There are presently over 1.1 million rental items beneath development within the U.S., which can come out there for lease over the subsequent yr, serving to to alleviate a part of the housing scarcity.

“We anticipate rents to fall in almost each a part of the nation by the center of 2023 as provide begins overtaking demand,” notes Taylor Marr, Redfin Deputy Chief Economist. “Whereas renters usually get the most effective deal through the winter months as demand is decrease, rents are persevering with to ease. Due to this, there gained’t be as a lot of a seasonal enhance come spring, and thus persistence for a very good deal will repay. And don’t be afraid to barter; some landlords could also be open to concessions like a free month’s lease or free parking.”

The highest ten costliest cities for renters in 2022

The highest ten least costly cities for renters in 2022

Knowledge consists of the 2022 aggregated median lease costs for every of the 50 largest metropolitan areas in comparison with 2021 knowledge from the identical interval. Knowledge is the median of all 0-3 bed room rental houses. 

5. Homebuyers seeking to relocate favored Solar-Belt cities

24.1% of homebuyers appeared to maneuver to a special metro through the three months ending in November. That is on par with the document excessive of 24.2% within the third quarter and up from 19.1% in 2019. 

• Homebuyers appeared to maneuver to sunny, comparatively reasonably priced areas, with Miami, Tampa, Las Vegas, and Phoenix being the preferred locations.
• Homebuyers appeared to maneuver away from costly coastal metros like San Francisco, Los Angeles, and New York, which topped the listing.
• 100% of houses in lots of standard relocation metros skilled extreme drought previously yr, together with Phoenix, Las Vegas, and Sacramento.

“Just like 2021, continued progress in distant work and a want for housing affordability drove relocation patterns in 2022,” Marr continues. “Nonetheless, developments in some standard locations reversed course after they grew to become too standard, aggressive, and costly. Cities like Salt Lake Metropolis, Phoenix, Tucson, Dallas, and San Antonio all declined in recognition in 2022.”

Knowledge is the p.c of Redfin.com customers looking for houses outdoors their metro. Knowledge is the yr median combination of a number of three month shifting aggregates and doesn’t embrace September-December. Sustain with the newest migration information right here. 

6. Inflation rose at a document tempo, affecting each side of the housing market

The costs of products and companies rose to six.48% yr over yr in November, the very best proportion since August 1982 and greater than double the speed from November 2021. In truth, inflation charges have doubled in comparison with the earlier yr in each month since June. Rising costs severely restricted client spending and slowed almost each side of the housing market. 

• • To fight the historic inflation, the Fed raised its goal rate of interest to 4.5%, the highest in 15 years.
  • Skyrocketing rates of interest brought on mortgage charges to rise and elevated fears of a recession, maintaining homebuyers out of the housing market.
  • Inflation rose the quickest in pandemic boomtowns due partly to the sudden bounce in home costs, which is a key contributor to inflation.

Knowledge courtesy of FRED. Knowledge measures core CPI (much less meals and power) by way of November 2022. 

7. Mortgage charges ballooned to almost 7% in response to document inflation

After a long time of falling mortgage charges, in 2022, charges climbed to almost 7% in each October and November, greater than any level since 2002. In truth, from October 2021 to October 2022, mortgage charges doubled in a single yr for the primary time in historical past. 

Because the yr got here to a detailed, optimistic inflation knowledge helped scale back housing rates of interest to beneath 7%.

• In standard migration metros like Phoenix, Las Vegas, and Austin, greater mortgage charges and costly residence costs damage consumers essentially the most.
• In Phoenix, for instance, as mortgage charges climbed in Could and June, solely 21.5% of houses have been reasonably priced to consumers with a $2,500 month-to-month mortgage finances – a 28.5% drop from 2021.

Excessive inflation and rising mortgage charges usually deter consumers, however should you’re capable of afford it, possession could be the higher choice. “Homeownership is a long-term funding that may result in important web value positive aspects, even with charges above 6%,” advises Dean Hayes, Space Gross sales Supervisor with Bay Equity, a Redfin firm. “Mortgage charges will probably go down within the new yr, which means extra residence consumers will return to the market, creating elevated competitors and fewer room for negotiation.”

8. Housing stock rose after hitting a document low

10.7 million houses have been listed on the market by way of November, up 11.2% in comparison with the 9.5 million houses listed by way of November in 2021. Within the three months ending November 2022, the variety of houses on the market elevated by 15% yr over yr, the most important enhance on document. 

As mortgage charges rose alongside inflation, extra consumers determined to remain put, permitting stock to extend. Since December 2019, stock has declined yr over yr till it lastly rose in June 2022.

“Patrons have extra leverage now than they’ve since 2010,” advises San Francisco Redfin agent Josh Felder. “Even with greater mortgage charges, should you intend to remain put for longer than 5 years, it’s an incredible funding. Properties are forecast to nonetheless recognize, even in gentle of present circumstances. Sellers ought to perceive that the market continues to be shifting. Properties don’t promote in 5 days, properly over listing worth, anymore.”

Stock and provide are calculated in rolling 90-day intervals, e.g., January 2022 knowledge is the three-month interval from November 1, 2021, by way of January 31, 2022.

9. Months of provide dropped to a near-record low of simply 1.2 months

Whereas stock measures the variety of houses presently out there on the market, months of provide measures the period of time it could take these houses to promote. 4 to 5 months of housing provide is taken into account the optimum benchmark. Lower than three months of housing provide usually signifies that there are extra consumers than sellers, whereas a better quantity means there are extra sellers than consumers. Stock and provide usually transfer collectively. 

Nationwide, months of housing provide dipped to only over 1.2 months in March earlier than slowly rebounding in the summertime. 12 months over yr, months of provide has declined virtually each month since January 2020. 

• As consumers retreated as a result of excessive inflation and rates of interest, months of provide started to develop in July and August, reaching 2.3 months of provide by September.
• In Seattle, months of provide reached a near-record low of simply 15.5 days in January and February, the bottom of any main metropolitan space.

“We’re shortly working again towards a balanced market, which is three to 6 months of stock,” says Seattle-area Redfin agent Brian Shields. “We’ve been in a vendor’s market with lower than 5 months of stock for a number of years, till halfway by way of this yr. Patrons now have much more selections than they did final Spring.”

Stock and provide are calculated in 90-day intervals, e.g., January 2022 knowledge is the three-month interval from November 1, 2021, by way of January 31, 2022.

10. New development took up a rising share of housing stock 

There have been 1.25 million privately-owned new houses constructed within the U.S. by way of November 2022, up 3% from a yr in the past. As inflation rose and the market slowed, builders started slowing their manufacturing to dump what they already had. 

New development has been taking over a rising portion of total housing provide since 2011, when constructing rebounded after the monetary disaster. This pattern intensified in 2021 and solely just lately started to decelerate. “In the event you’re a purchaser, take into account new development houses,” advises Kim Stearns, a Northern Idaho Redfin agent. “Due to a list buildup, many builders have one to 4 houses they’d love to shut on and can usually provide incentives.”  

• Over 63% of latest builds have been single-family houses, up 2% yr over yr
• New development begins dropped from their peak of 164,000 in April to 111,000 in November

Knowledge courtesy of Census.gov. 

11. House gross sales fell almost 17% yr over yr 

5.62 million U.S. houses bought by way of November, down 16.6% yr over yr, a pointy lower from the 6.74 million bought in 2021 throughout the identical interval. Basically, between 4 and 7 million houses promote per yr, with the historic common sitting at just over 5 million. 12 months-over-year residence gross sales decreased in each month of 2022, with October and November posting the sharpest declines. 

• Simply 376,000 houses bought in November, down 37.4% yr over yr and a seasonally-adjusted historic low (since 2001).
• June was the busiest month with 626,641 houses bought, a 15.2% year-over-year dip.

Knowledge was collected by way of November.

12. Median days on market rose at a document tempo, signaling a dramatic turnaround from 2021’s breakneck tempo

In 2022, houses spent a mean of simply 24 days in the marketplace, an 8.4% enhance yr over yr in comparison with the 22 days in the marketplace in 2021. Since 2020, a housing provide crunch has been attributable to provide chain points, a power lack of homebuilding, and a rise in demand. In 2022, time in the marketplace ticked up as homebuilding started to catch as much as demand and excessive mortgage and inflation charges restricted consumers’ spending energy. 

“Because of a slowing financial system and layoffs within the tech sector close to the top of the yr, many consumers paused their residence search as a result of affordability and job safety,” notes Frank Vettesse III, a San Francisco Redfin agent. “This was considered one of many components that contributed to the dramatic slowdown in gross sales.”

• Could was the busiest month of the yr, with houses spending a mean of simply 17 days in the marketplace.
• Within the 4 weeks ending December 4th, houses spent a mean of 37 days in the marketplace, the slowest month of 2022 and the most important year-over-year slowdown on document.

13. 14% of lively residence listings skilled worth drops 

On common, 14% of lively houses on the market had worth drops in 2022, up 4.7% yr over yr. In October, 22.6% of listings had worth drops, a decades-long excessive. In truth, from February by way of July, the variety of houses with worth drops rose from 5.7% to 19.5%, a record-fast enhance. “The shift was dramatic,” says Christy Seashore, a Seattle-area Redfin agent. “The consumers who didn’t safe a house through the peak of competitors at the moment are bidding low. For instance, the identical kind of residence that consumers have been keen to supply $200,000 over listing worth at the moment are providing $200,000 beneath listing worth.” 

• In Denver, 47% of houses skilled reductions in worth, the very best proportion of any main metropolis.
• Although worth drops have been widespread, median sale costs nonetheless elevated in virtually each metro within the county. 
• Many pandemic-era migration hotspots, reminiscent of Tampa, Las Vegas, and West Palm Seashore, had a big proportion of listings with worth drops as properly.

“As sellers with stale listings grew to become more and more anxious to get their properties bought, we noticed a steep rise in worth drops by way of the summer time right here in Washington State,” says Darlene Haselton, a Tacoma, WA Redfin agent. “At present, houses which might be recent in the marketplace are beginning to transfer extra shortly. As mortgage charges dip additional, in-demand properties might begin receiving a number of gives.” 

The highest 5 cities with the very best share of worth drops in 2022

Knowledge consists of the median worth drops out of all lively listings in every of the 50 largest metropolitan areas. 

14. 55% of houses had a bidding conflict

55% of houses had bidding wars in 2022, down from 64% in 2021. Coastal metros skilled the very best charges of bidding wars, together with Boston (69.8%) and Los Angeles (67.7%). 

Nonetheless, nationwide, bidding wars fell from 72% to 35% from February to November. A worsening financial system, greater mortgage charges, and a rise in provide contributed to the slowdown.

Shauna Pendleton, a Boise, ID Redfin agent, advises sellers to be affected person and anticipate mortgage charges to drop. “Except a house is priced $100,000 or extra beneath market worth, bidding wars are largely non-existent. Our crew nonetheless hears of some multiple-offer conditions; in these instances, it’s usually a luxurious residence in a high-demand neighborhood that’s priced very aggressively.” 

The highest 5 metros with the very best proportion of bidding wars in 2022

Knowledge consists of the median proportion of bidding wars throughout lively listings in every of the 50 largest metropolitan areas. 

15. Over 30% of houses have been bought with money in 2022

30.7% of houses have been bought with all money, up 2% yr over yr. In October (the latest knowledge out there), 32% of houses have been paid for with all money, up 2% yr over yr and the very best share since 2014. 

• Florida was the preferred state for all-cash purchases, particularly Jacksonville and West Palm Seashore.
• Costly west coast metros, together with Oakland, San Jose, and Seattle, had the bottom share of all-cash purchases.

Knowledge is from a Redfin evaluation of county information throughout 39 of essentially the most populous U.S. metropolitan areas, relationship again by way of 2011. Knowledge doesn’t embrace November or December.

16. Actual property traders bought almost 20% of obtainable listings, a brand new document

Vying to capitalize on the housing and rental growth, traders bought 233,701 houses in 2022 by way of September, a record-breaking 19.1% of all listings. Multifamily residential properties constituted the biggest proportion of investor market share, with a mean of 30% of those properties being bought by traders. 

Pandemic boomtowns grew to become the biggest investor hotspots, particularly in Solar-Belt metros.

The highest 5 metros with the biggest investor market shares in 2022

Knowledge is analyzed on a quarterly foundation and consists of all property sorts until in any other case said. Whole proportion is the common of knowledge from January-September. Knowledge doesn’t embrace the final quarter of 2022. 

17. Luxurious residence gross sales skilled their greatest year-over-year decline on document

In 2022, there have been 258,733 luxurious houses bought within the U.S., down 27% yr over yr and the most important decline since 2012. Lively listings dropped even additional, falling by 32.7% yr over yr. The median sale worth for a luxurious residence was $1,080,000, up 14.8% yr over yr. Costs reached their peak of $1,120,000 through the three months ending Could, a 15.7% year-over-year enhance. Nonetheless, worth progress, listings, and gross sales slowed considerably as demand cooled later within the yr. 

• Within the three months ending November thirtieth, luxurious residence gross sales fell by 38.1%, the biggest drop on document. 
• Luxurious houses spent a mean of 32 days in the marketplace by way of November, up 28.9% yr over yr
• Tampa was the quickest rising luxurious market, with costs rising by 32.3% yr over yr
• Luxurious residence gross sales declined by 47% in San Jose, the most important fall of any main metro

“In Seattle, luxurious listings noticed the biggest reductions in worth,” continues Seattle agent Christy Seashore. “Within the present market, most sellers with a worth level of $1.5 million or greater want to organize to make their residence stand out among the many competitors. Most of the time, sellers are having to barter their worth and phrases with consumers.”

Luxurious houses are outlined as the highest 5% of listings in a given market. Values are three month shifting aggregates ending on the date proven, e.g., November 2022 spans September, October, and November 2022. Knowledge doesn’t embrace the three months ending December 31. 

Wanting ahead

The 2022 housing market was chaotic, however what does Redfin predict for 2023? Learn our 2023 Housing Market Predictions to be taught extra.

All knowledge was compiled by the week ending December 23, 2022. Knowledge is aggregated from January to November and doesn’t embrace December until said in any other case. All knowledge is from Redfin, FRED, and/or public information. For questions on metrics, learn our metrics definitions web page.